Severe Storms Possible Tuesday
By Quincy Vagell on September 15, 2012, 3:40pm
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Don't look now, but severe weather may try to return to the forecast.
A vigorous low pressure system is projected to move through Tuesday night and the stage could be set for some strong to severe thunderstorms.
Discussion:
It's still about three days out, but the signs point towards the potential. The main limiting factor in Connecticut could be the timing. With the front projected to not make it here until late Tuesday or even early Wednesday morning, that could keep the worst activity a bit further west. The atmosphere should only be marginally unstable, but that's to be expected for this time of the year. The dynamics aloft could be supportive of severe thunderstorms.
Forecast:
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible through the day on Tuesday. A line of thunderstorms may develop later at night and those storms could produce strong, gusty winds.
Analysis:
The setup is actually fairly similar to what we saw a week ago, when numerous Tornado Warnings were posted across the area. Not to mention two tornadoes were confirmed in New York City. We have low pressure passing north, along with a strong cold front blowing through. The top image on the right shows a strong southerly flow, which is what we also saw on Saturday the 8th. Again, the timing is a bit later, so it will be interesting to see if the front can manage to come through sooner. If it does, the forecast could get downright ugly.
Winds:
The NAM (above) shows strong winds near the surface, but winds aloft are also expected to be on the stronger side. The SPC SREF shows an area of 850mb winds in excess of 40 knots, across western Connecticut, by 8 p.m. Tuesday. 
What may be even more impressive are the helicity values. The SPC SREF shows readings over 300 m^2/s^2, although once again, the highest values are just a bit to the west of Connecticut. Helicity deals with the cyclonic updraft potential and relates back to possible twisting and turning, which can cause tornadoes when values are this high.
Summary:
Even if the setup is not perfect, a line of thunderstorms is increasing possible late Tuesday and into the overnight period. The potential exists for isolated strong to severe thunderstorms, especially in Connecticut if the cold front speeds up. If not, the threat may be higher across PA, NY and NJ. Right now, strong, gusty winds are the main threat. There could be isolated tornadoes, but the potential for that is west of Connecticut, at this time.
Stay tuned to WXedge.com for the latest updates.
Check out Erika's thoughts on the situation.
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