Severe WX Gets Worse: WX Sound-Off
By Quincy Vagell on September 23, 2012, 1:40pm
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James from Shelton wants to know why severe weather seems to be getting worse.
"Why has the weather in Connecticut become more severe over time? It seems like we never had so many Tornado Watches and Warnings, and the storms that do come through our state are much more severe than ever before. Why has this changed over the years?"
There are a lot of factors to consider here and in some ways, the weather has not become more severe.
Tornado Watches and Warnings:
Technology is perhaps the number one reason why there have been more of these watches and warnings. Radar technology now can, with higher resolution and accuracy, detect rotation within a thunderstorm. "Dual Pol" technology also allows meteorologists to get a better idea if exactly what is happening on radar. There is so much more that can be identified, beyond the "regular" precipitation intensity.
So, even though the frequency of tornadoes may not necessarily be increasing, we are better able to detect the warning signs that a tornado MIGHT develop. In the case of this year, Connecticut has surprisingly not had an official touch-down. CT averages 1.3 tornadoes per year, so while some years may be zero, others can easily have 1, 2 or even more tornadoes reported.
Tropical Storm Irene:
Some people think that Irene was an usual storm and that it's something CT rarely experiences. Well, contrary to popular belief, CT is long overdue for a direct hit from a hurricane. The last storm to make a direct landfall in the state was Hurricane Gloria 27 years ago. On average, a hurricane directly hits Connecticut once every 15 years. Hurricane Bob came close and similarly to Hurricane Floyd, Irene weakened before it eventually made it into Connecticut. Although the damage from Irene was very severe, a direct hurricane landfall in the state would likely be even worse.
Severe Winters:
The frequency of major snow storms has actually appeared to rise over the past several years. The winter of 2010-11 was certainly extraordinary and the number of major snow storms seems to be increasing. Part of the reason may have to do with warmer temperatures, surprisingly enough. Warmer sea-surface temperatures can help fuel stronger storms. Also, with more warm, moist air in place during the winter, the clash of air-masses also leads to a similar result. So, even though we may not get crippling snow every winter, the possibility of a severe snow storm may be higher now than it was, perhaps 10-15 years ago.
Severe Weather in General:
With global temperatures, including those around CT, on the rise, there is more potential heat in the atmosphere. In the summer, daytime heating works to cause an environment that supports thunderstorm development. A unique thing happened on Saturday, September 8th. A fall-like storm system interacted with summer-like warm water off the New Jersey coast. A strong southerly flow pushed warm, moist air into our region. This helped spawn two tornadoes in New York City. Although severe weather does happen on occasion in September, it is certainly much more likely to happen in May, June or July.
Storm Prediction Center: (SPC)
I spoke with Gil and we agree that it seems like the SPC has been overplaying a lot of severe weather events this year. There have been several times where a marginal event was spun into something a bit more serious. Also, in a lot of their severe weather outlooks, they have put CT under the threat for severe weather, but then explained in their discussion that the threat was marginal at best.
It is better to be safe than sorry, but it appears that in at least some cases, Watches have been posted more liberally this year than in previous years.
Trees:
Many would argue that trees are causing a lot of power outages. Since most power lines are above ground, any strong winds or heavy snow can cause damage, leading to power outages. It is possible that mass power outages in the future can be more easily avoided if trees are cut back further from power lines. (the best solution would be to convert over to underground wires, but that would literally cost billions of dollars)
Natural Cycles:
One final subject to consider is that natural weather cycles can and do happen. For example, the 50's and 60's had many severe winters. We got into a general period where heavy snow seemed to be happening less consistently. We then had a lot of heavy snow events between 2005 and 2011, but this past winter, aside from the October snowstorm, was relatively snow-less.
Weather usually seems to balance itself out in the end. We may have wild weather for a few years, but then patterns could become quiet for subsequent years.
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