Big Cool Down: Can it Reach CT?
By Quincy Vagell on September 29, 2012, 4:30pm
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The ECMWF and GFS continue to show a big cooldown coming to southern Canada and the Great Lakes, but can this cooler air reach Connecticut?
After a relatively warm summer, autumn has started on a cooler note. With signs of slightly warmer air this upcoming week, there is question of when our first really cool blast of air can be expected.
Current data:
The above image shows day 8-10 500mb anomalies from the ECMWF (left) and GFS (right). Both show significantly below average 500mb heights over the Great Lakes, as seen in blue. However, Connecticut stays neutral on the ECMWF and only slightly below average on the GFS.
Mid/late-week:
The MOS data, GFS and ECMWF are in fairly good agreement with some above normal air moving into Connecticut for the Tuesday through Friday period. It's for next weekend and beyond when things start changing.
Below image shows the new 12z ECMWF 850mb temperature forecasts for days 8, 9 and 10, which are the 7th-9th of October.
The image above shows warm air on Sunday the 7th, as 850s are still near 10C. This would likely mean surface temperatures in the 70s. Although things do cool off for Monday and Tuesday (8th and 9th of October), the core of the cool air remains to our northwest.
What to expect:
There's still a lot of things to consider. How much upstream blocking will come into play? The more blocking, the longer the cool air may stick around. However, if that blocking is further southwest, it may actually keep us on the warm side.
October is a very changeable time for New England. The area commonly sees wide swings in temperatures throughout the month. Some years have significant warm ups ("Indian Summer") and last year featured the October nor'easter.
Stay tuned to WXedge.com for all the latest details.
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