Friday Update: Potential Nor'easter

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By Quincy Vagell on November 2, 2012, 4:00pm Last modified: November 3, 2012, 4:06pm

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12z ECMWF forecast for 12 a.m. Thursday.

All eyes turn to next week as a coastal system may move up the East Coast.

The last thing that people across the mid-Atlantic and New England coasts want is another storm, but the computer models continue to paint the possibility of a nor'easter next week.

Overview:
As we move into the beginning of next week, there are indications that a trough will dig south from Canada into the eastern United States. Combine this with a surface low pressure system over Carolinas and we could very well be talking about a storm moving up the East Coast.
The biggest concern is that even though any storm would not be severe, more precipitation and wind coming in off the ocean could cause problems for the coastline.
It needs to be stressed that things could change, although the likelihood of a storm somewhere along the East Coast is increasing. Such a storm would generally bring light amounts of precipitation and perhaps a touch of snow for inland areas, but although wind and coastal flooding would be possible, the storm would be much LESS intense than Sandy. The time-frame now appears to be Wednesday and possibly lasting into Thursday.

Model discussion:
The ECMWF has been fairly consistent with a storm track right along the immediate coast. Such a track would bring light to moderate rain to Connecticut, along with an easterly wind. That's not a good scenario for those along the coast. This solution also means mostly rain, although the higher terrain across northwestern CT could start as a bit of snow.
The GFS has been a little less consistent and the latest data shows a storm further east, only brushing parts of the area. Despite a track more offshore, there's less cold air to work with, so the 12z run shows plain rain for the area.

Gil's noon forecast
Gil's morning discussion on the coastal storm potential 

Stay tuned to WXedge.com for all the latest details.

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Quincy Vagell

Town: Marlborough, CT  

Reporting for WXedge since January 2012.

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