Potential Nor'easter Could be Problematic

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By Quincy Vagell on November 12, 2012, 4:00pm Last modified: November 13, 2012, 2:09pm

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GFS forecast surface wind field for the morning of Monday, November 19th.

For the past few days, the computer models have continued to hint at the potential for another nor'easter next week. As we move forward, the signals are still in place.

Overview:
A cold front swings through on Tuesday, allowing for cooler air from Canada to return to much of the Northeast. The overall weather pattern turns not only cooler, perhaps setting the stage for another storm. The computer weather forecasts show a storm developing somewhere along the Carolina coast this weekend. As the system may sit and spin off the coast for a few days, there could be moderate to significant impacts up and down the East Coast. This is an evolving set-up and there are many details to figure out. It's too soon to get into specifics, but there is the potential for wintry precipitation, increasing wind and coastal affects early next week.

Technical discussion:
As the week wears on, it looks like a trough will begin to develop somewhere along the East Coast. This trough's interaction with a piece of energy near the Bahamas are the focus of the computer models. Although there are differences, the general idea is painted well with the 12z Euro and GFS. Both show a storm developing off of the Carolina coast and drifting northward. As the storm becomes a cut-off low, it may move little into early next week. Upstream blocking and sprawling surface high pressure system come into play here, so the system bears watching.

Continue on for some additional details including a model discussion.

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Quincy Vagell

Town: Marlborough, CT  

Reporting for WXedge since January 2012.

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