Storm Tries to Make a Comeback

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By Quincy Vagell on November 16, 2012, 4:00pm Last modified: November 17, 2012, 8:48am

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12z GFS forecast precipitation for Tuesday and Wednesday of next week.

Some computer models are trying to bring next week's storm back.

Yesterday, the GFS computer model began tracking closer to the coast with a low pressure system next week. The trends continued into today...

The 12z GFS, as shown above, now shows a glancing blow from the storm.
After showing a storm for several days, the computer models backed off on this idea by Wednesday. The Thursday trends were mostly offshore, but now the trend appears to have been reversed. (the potential storm may impact Connecticut around Wednesday of next week)
The 12z European model shifted about 150 miles northwest, but is still far enough offshore to miss the area.Some of the other 12z computer models today also indicated a slight trend northwest. 

Although a direct impact is unlikely, the storm could very well trend closer to CT.
It's critical to keep in mind that computer models sometimes show extreme solutions with forecasts. A few runs showed a storm hugging the coast and others showed the storm hundreds of miles out to sea.
The most reasonable forecast considers a track somewhere in between, which could mean a glancing blow for coastal/eastern sections of southern New England, including Connecticut.
Even if the storm tracks closer, a snow storm is UNLIKELY, but the area could experience clouds, breezy conditions, minor coastal flooding and even some rain showers. The pattern looks too warm for snow, but a chilly rain is possible.

It's a very challenging forecast and the computer models are having a tough time with the setup. The weather maps on this page are valid for NEXT WEDNESDAY.

The 500mb chart from the GFS below shows that several areas of vorticity try to spin up and kick this storm back to the north. If such a trend continues, this could ultimately push the storm closer to the coast:
What's also interesting is that several of the GFS ensembles (7 out of 12) show either a glancing blow or a more significant hit from the storm nex week. A sample of the 12z GFS ensembles, courtesy of PSU Meteorology:
Stay tuned to for the latest forecast discussions. 

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Quincy Vagell

Town: Marlborough, CT  

Reporting for WXedge since January 2012.

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