Should We Worry: Coastal Storm?
By Quincy Vagell on November 19, 2012, 11:40am Last modified: November 19, 2012, 4:02pm
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With a storm looming close to the coast, should we be concerned in Connecticut?
Although the satellite image above looks pretty ominous, once you look at the atmosphere closer to the surface, things don't look nearly as scary.
Analysis:
High pressure is firmly locked in across the Northeast and this is helping keep low pressure offshore and away from our area. Think of high pressure as a "shield" to basically deflect the storm.
The image below shows the Monday morning surface analysis:
The precipitatable water analysis is also bone-dry. Without available moisture in the atmosphere, it's awfully hard to get any precipitation at the surface. Yes, we may have clouds around the area, but conditions are expected to remain mostly dry.
If we move down to the 850mb level, which is about 5000 feet above the surface, it's also dry there. The white/pink color indicates relative humidity levels below 25% across the area. You have to go all the way down to the Virginia Coast before you reach 50%.
This is a strong indicator that storminess will stay away from Connecticut.
Final thoughts:
If we go back to previous forecasts, some of the computer models were trying to bring the storm up the coast. Also the system has trended closer to the shoreline, it's simply too dry to bring any precipitation to our area. Also, with high pressure firmly locked in, although conditions may be rather cloudy, the forecast should remain dry.
Check out the latest satellite loop:
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