Next Week: A Tale of Two Tracks

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By Quincy Vagell on November 22, 2012, 5:30pm Last modified: November 23, 2012, 4:19pm

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With a storm in next week's forecast, all eyes turn to the computer models.

Unfortunately. there is not a lot of consensus between the two lead models, the ECMWF (Euro) and GFS. The result is a somewhat low confidence forecast.

A low pressure system is expected to develop over the Plains early next week. As the storm moves east, it is projected to impact the East Coast on Tuesday into Wednesday. At this point, it is unclear where the storm may track. The ultimate track will determine if we see snow, a wintry mix, rain or possibly nothing at all.

The Euro has been pretty consistent over the past few runs with a storm passing well south of the area. The result is cooler air and little if any precipitation.
On the other hand, the GFS remains inland and shows a warm and rainy solution.

While the Euro may have a better track record than the GFS, the further northwest solution cannot be entirely ruled out. This is also true since the storm is still five (5) to six (6) days a way and a lot can change.

Continue the slideshow for some additional thoughts.

Click HERE to jump ahead to my first gut forecast.

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Quincy Vagell

Town: Naugatuck, CT  

Reporting for WXedge since January 2012.

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