Next Week: Where's the Storm?

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By Quincy Vagell on November 23, 2012, 4:19pm Last modified: November 24, 2012, 4:19pm

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Some of today's computer model data says next week's storm may miss us entirely.

One computer model was showing a warm storm with rain, while the other was colder and further south. Today, it appears as if the trend is moving away from a big storm entirely.

Low pressure is still expected to develop across the Plains on Monday. The storm is then forecast to move eastward, but will it pass close enough to us to give us precipitation? The forecast trend is showing a further southeast storm track and with a lower impact storm. With more cold air in place, this could mean snow or conditions that are too dry for anything.

The ECMWF (Euro) computer model continues to show a storm south of our area, with little to no precipitation for Connecticut. That model also shows a cold and dry air-mass in place, forcing a weak system out to sea.
The GFS had been showing a track well inland, but each of the last four runs have trended further and further southeast. Now, the GFS shows snow, but will that forecast hold up?

Remember that the Euro has been the more reliable computer model and the GFS has been very inconsistent with its forecast. The storm is still four (4) to five (5) days out, so this is all subject to change.

Continue the slideshow for some additional thoughts.

Click HERE to jump ahead to my latest forecast.


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Quincy Vagell

Town: Naugatuck, CT  

Reporting for WXedge since January 2012.

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