Extended Holiday Weather Forecast

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By Quincy Vagell on December 17, 2012, 11:50am Last modified: December 18, 2012, 12:06pm

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This is an extended outlook to the upcoming Christmas holiday. Keep in mind that this forecast is subject to change, as Christmas is still more than a week away. The intent is to give a general idea of what the current trends are indicating.

Christmas Eve: Mostly cloudy skies and chilly. Highs 30 to 38 degrees.
Christmas Day: Clouds and sunshine, seasonable. Highs 32 to 40 degrees.
December 26th: Sunshine with milder temperatures. Highs 38 to 46 degrees.

The prospects for a White Christmas don't look great at this point. A storm system is expected to bring rain to the area towards the end of this week. There are no significant storms anticipated beyond that. Flurries or snow showers may be possible as colder air moves in this weekend.

The Euro and GFS are in fair agreement with low pressure moving northwest of our area on Friday. The result would be rain for Connecticut. Low pressure becomes cutoff and drifts to our east on the models, indicating that a push of cooler air moves into the area. The air-mass is modified, so only seasonably chilly high temperatures in the 30's are expected. As far as a White Christmas goes, the only thing to really watch will be the potential for snow showers in the days leading up to Christmas. Although accumulating snow does not look likely at this point, inland areas and especially the northwest hills MIGHT be able to get a little bit of snow on the ground before the 25th.
Two final notes...the models look slow in warming 2-meter temperatures on the 26th. With a ridge expected to build, the forecast above has gone higher than guidance and pushes most areas into the 40's for highs. Finally, the models in general have overestimated cold air in the extended range, so the forecast above is also a few degrees warmer than current guidance.

00z European forecast* for Connecticut:
Christmas Eve: Mostly cloudy. Possible snow showers. Highs 27 to 35 degrees.
Christmas Day: Clouds and sunshine, seasonable. Highs 30 to 37 degrees.
December 26th: Increasing sunshine and chilly. Highs 25 to 32 degrees.

06z GFS forecast** for Connecticut:
Christmas Eve: Clouds on the increase, seasonable. Highs 30 to 38 degrees.
Christmas Day: Variable cloudiness and chilly. Highs 26 to 34 degrees.
December 26th: Increasing clouds and seasonable. Highs 30 to 38 degrees.

*Data is interpolated from 00z Euro graphical guidance.
**Data is taken from the 16-day grids; temperature range is estimated. 

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Quincy Vagell

Town: Naugatuck, CT  

Reporting for WXedge since January 2012.

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