Watching the Heavy Rain Tonight

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By Quincy Vagell on December 17, 2012, 5:25pm Last modified: December 18, 2012, 8:28am

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A cold front remains south of the area, keeping us on the damp and cool side of a series of storm systems. Low pressure over the Ohio Valley is accompanied by heavy rain and that storm is moving towards the Northeast United States.

This evening: Areas of fog and drizzle. Temperatures steady or slowly rising through the 30's inland and up through the 40's near the coast. A few sheltered locations near the Massachusetts border could have patchy icing before temperatures rise.
Overnight: Widely scattered showers. Generally light rain, but a brief heavier shower is possible. Temperatures slowly rising into the 40's. Areas of dense fog possible.
Tuesday morning: A few rain showers, generally light. Patchy drizzle and fog. Temperatures ranging from the lower 40's near the Massachusetts border to the lower 50's across southeastern Connecticut.
Image below shows how chilly air is locked into much of interior New England:

As one wave of low pressure passes south and east of Cape Cod, the near-surface wind flow remains out of the north to northeast. This is keeping chilly air locked in across inland sections of the state, as KBDL was 34F at 5 p.m. A few of the outlying areas near the MA border are still near or just a degree or two above freezing. This may allow for patchy icing as daytime heating is lost. However, all model guidance shows a slow rise in temperatures overnight. The clash of air-masses will cause locally dense fog and very low visibility. Heavy rain associated with another low pressure center over the lower Ohio Valley is projected to move northwest of the area and this lines up with radar imagery. As a result, just expecting drizzle and fog with a few spot showers mixed in. Temperatures may not rise much until after midnight near the MA border, but even there readings should slowly rise through the 30's.
A complex series of fronts approach the area early Tuesday morning as low pressure moves through or near the area. Depending on the exact evolution of those fronts, the temperature forecast gets a big tricky. Generally expecting mid-40's to lower 50's for the morning hours, but we could see readings cooler NW or even milder SE. The trend has been to keep chilly air locked in to the N & W, but KGON has been sitting at 47F for the past few hours.

It is interesting to note some strong to locally severe thunderstorms across the Tennessee Valley, but the worst of that activity will stay away from Connecticut.

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Quincy Vagell

Town: Marlborough, CT  

Reporting for WXedge since January 2012.

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