Extended Holiday Weather Forecast

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By Quincy Vagell on December 18, 2012, 12:00pm Last modified: December 19, 2012, 3:42pm

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This is an extended outlook to the upcoming Christmas holiday. Keep in mind that this forecast is subject to change, as Christmas is still a week away. The intent is to give a general idea of what the current trends are indicating.

Christmas Eve: Variable cloudiness and chilly. Highs 30 to 38 degrees.
Christmas Day: Clouds and sunshine, seasonable. Highs 30 to 38 degrees.
December 26th: Sunshine and somewhat milder. Highs 36 to 44 degrees.

The prospects for a White Christmas are looking even lower at this time. A storm system is expected to bring rain to the area Friday morning. There are no significant storms anticipated beyond that. Flurries or snow showers may be possible as colder air moves in this weekend, but mainly across the higher terrain of Litchfield County.

The models are in good agreement with the track of a low pressure system over or just northwest of our area on Friday. For the weekend, both the Euro and GFS show that low cutting-off and spinning northeast of the area. The result will be a chilly northwest flow as we head into early next week. The models diverge and since the general pattern remains, the forecast was not significantly changed. Temperatures were bumped down 2 degrees on both Christmas and the 26th as high pressure may try to keep cooler air locked in. Given 850mb temperatures moderating to near 0C by 00z on the 27th, the models are likely too cold with high temperatures for the 26th.

00z European forecast* for Connecticut:
Christmas Eve: Mostly cloudy. Possible flurries north. Highs 25 to 33 degrees.
Christmas Day: Fair skies, chilly northerly winds. Highs 20 to 30 degrees.
December 26th: Sunshine, a few clouds, seasonable. Highs 32 to 38 degrees.

06z GFS forecast** for Connecticut:
Christmas Eve: Mostly sunny, seasonably chilly. Highs 30 to 35 degrees.
Christmas Day: Clouds, a few breaks of sunshine. Highs 33 to 38 degrees.
December 26th: Variable clouds and chilly. Highs 28 to 36 degrees.

*Data is interpolated from 00z Euro graphical guidance.
**Data is taken from the 16-day grids; temperature range is estimated. 

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Quincy Vagell

Town: Marlborough, CT  

Reporting for WXedge since January 2012.

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