Wednesday's Holiday Weather Forecast

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By Quincy Vagell on December 19, 2012, 3:40pm Last modified: December 20, 2012, 5:08pm

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This is an extended outlook to the upcoming Christmas holiday. Keep in mind that this forecast is subject to change, as Christmas is still six days away. The intent is to give a general idea of what the current trends are indicating.

Christmas Eve: Sunshine followed by late-day clouds. Highs 34 to 40 degrees.
Christmas Day: Light snow/rain showers ending early. Highs 34 to 40 degrees.
December 26th: Mostly sunny, clouds increasing late. Highs 36 to 42 degrees.

Although the probability of getting an "official" White Christmas (at least one inch of snow on the ground) is rather low, there could be a touch of snow in the air. The computer models indicate the potential for some light precipitation, mainly in the form of snow, occurring early Christmas morning. At this point, it looks as if there was snow, accumulation would likely be around or less than one inch.

There are no significant model discrepancies through the weekend and even the Euro and GFS are in pretty good agreement leading into Christmas. The setup includes a cut-off low just north of Maine, which helps lock in some seasonably chilly air for early next week. It's a developing shortwave moving through the Mississippi Valley on Christmas Eve Day that will be monitored. Although the disturbance does not have much of an opportunity to become a strong storm, it could bring some light precipitation into the area. The 12z GFS shows marginal boundary layer temperatures, indicating a light mixture of snow and rain early on Christmas Day. The Euro is similar, although it's a bit cooler and drier. The result there is just a few flurries. 
The official White Christmas threshold would probably not be met, but current model trends indicate the potential for a coating of snow. Right now, the time-frame looks to be 00z through 12z on the 25th. The models show quick drying of the atmosphere later on Christmas Day.
A deep area of low pressure is still projected to develop across the Gulf States on the 26th. This system is expected to move west of the area, drawing in some milder air by late in the day on the 26th. 

12z European forecast* for Connecticut:
Christmas Eve: Sunshine followed by clouds, chilly. Highs 30 to 38 degrees.
Christmas Day: Early flurries, then clearing skies. Highs 31 to 39 degrees.
December 26th: Mostly sunny early, more clouds late. Highs 34 to 41 degrees.

12z GFS forecast** for Connecticut:
Christmas Eve: Increasing clouds, seasonably cool. Highs 35 to 42 degrees.
Christmas Day: Snow/rain showers ending early. Highs 35 to 43 degrees.
December 26th: Clouds, possible showers late. Highs 34 to 41 degrees.

*Data is interpolated from 12z Euro graphical guidance.
**Data is taken from the GFSX MOS data.

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Quincy Vagell

Town: Naugatuck, CT  

Reporting for WXedge since January 2012.

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