Updated Holiday Weather Forecast

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By Quincy Vagell on December 20, 2012, 4:45pm Last modified: December 21, 2012, 5:29pm

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Christmas Eve: Sunshine followed by late-day clouds. Highs 33 to 38 degrees.
Christmas Day: Light snow/rain showers in the morning. Highs 35 to 40 degrees.
December 26th: Mostly sunny, clouds increasing late. Highs 38 to 43 degrees.

Although the probability of getting an "official" White Christmas (at least one inch of snow on the ground) is rather low, there could be a touch of snow in the air. The computer models indicate the potential for some light precipitation, mainly in the form of snow, occurring early Christmas morning.
At this point, it looks like any snow accumulation would be less than one inch.

The setup continues to show a cut-off low just north of Maine, which helps lock in some seasonably chilly air for early next week. It's a developing shortwave moving through the Ohio Valley on Christmas Eve Day that will be monitored. Although the disturbance does not have much of an opportunity to become a strong storm, it could bring some light precipitation into the area. The GFS and Euro handle the system differently, but both show the potential for a light mixture of snow and rain first thing Christmas Day. Precipitation amounts are under 0.10 inches on both models.
The official White Christmas threshold will probably not be met, but current model trends indicate the potential for a coating of snow across interior sections of CT. Right now, the time-frame looks to be 00z through 12z on the 25th. The models show quick drying of the atmosphere later on Christmas Day. Also note that shoreline areas may be a few degrees above freezing, meaning accumulating snow would be more difficult to achieve.
A deep area of low pressure is still projected to develop across the Gulf States on the 26th. This system is expected to move west of the area, drawing in some milder air by late in the day on the 26th. Temperatures have been nudged up a couple of degrees on the 26th as a result of warming with the Euro and GFS forecasts. If the storm track is far enough inland, those temperatures may trend even warmer.

12z European forecast* for Connecticut:
Christmas Eve: Sunshine followed by clouds, chilly. Highs 30 to 37 degrees.
Christmas Day: Early snow/rain showers, then clearing. Highs 35 to 42 degrees.
December 26th: Mostly sunny early, more clouds late. Highs 40 to 50 degrees.

12z GFS forecast** for Connecticut:
Christmas Eve: Increasing clouds, seasonably cool. Highs 34 to 39 degrees.
Christmas Day: Snow/rain showers ending early. Highs 36 to 41 degrees.
December 26th: Clouds, possible showers late. Highs 39 to 47 degrees.

*Data is interpolated from 12z Euro graphical guidance.
**Data is taken from the GFSX MOS data.

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Quincy Vagell

Town: Naugatuck, CT  

Reporting for WXedge since January 2012.

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