Friday's Holiday Weather Forecast

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By Quincy Vagell on December 21, 2012, 5:15pm Last modified: December 23, 2012, 1:52am

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Christmas Eve: Sunshine followed by late-day clouds. Highs 33 to 38 degrees.
Christmas Day: Snow showers early, may mix at coast. Highs 34 to 40 degrees.
December 26th: Building clouds, snow developing late. Highs 35 to 40 degrees.

A storm system is expected to bring light snow to the entire state on Christmas morning. The official threshold for a White Christmas is one inch of snow on the ground and some areas may be able to get that much snowfall.
Current forecast: Around one inch of snow inland, less than one inch at the coast.

Overall, the forecast remains pretty much the same. A weak shortwave disturbance is projected to spin off a weak low south of New England late Monday into early Christmas day. The GFS shows a thermal profile cold enough for all snow, while the Euro shows some mixing issues on the shoreline. Either way, the current projected snowfall amounts by the models range from 1/2" to 3". There has been some consistency problems with the models and given the uncertainty, including marginal coastal temps, the current forecast is for near 1" inland and slightly less at the coast. This may need to be bumped up in later forecasts.
The forecast for the 26th has changed a bit. The Euro has continued a trend east and is now significantly cooler for both the 26th and the 27th. Both the GFS and Euro show light snow overspreading the state Wednesday night, so the forecast above speeds up the arrival of precipitation and nudges temps down a few dergees. If we would venture ahead to Thursday the 27th, I would say the current forecast includes a wintry mix. There is a great deal of uncertainty, so I can't really lean towards more rain or more snow just yet. 

12z European forecast* for Connecticut:
Christmas Eve: Sunshine followed by clouds, chilly. Highs 33 to 40 degrees.
Christmas Day: Light snow early, mix at the coast. Highs 32 to 42 degrees.
December 26th: Light snow developing in the evening. Highs 28 to 34 degrees.

12z GFS forecast** for Connecticut:
Christmas Eve: Sunshine followed by clouds, chilly. Highs 36 to 41 degrees.
Christmas Day: Snow showers ending in the morning. Highs 36 to 40 degrees.
December 26th: Light snow developing in the evening. Highs 36 to 39 degrees.

*Data is interpolated from 12z Euro graphical guidance.
**Data is taken from the GFSX MOS data.

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Quincy Vagell

Town: Naugatuck, CT  

Reporting for WXedge since January 2012.

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