First Snowfall Map for Christmas

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By Quincy Vagell on December 23, 2012, 1:45am Last modified: December 24, 2012, 11:01pm

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A weak storm system is expected to bring a period of light precipitation, mainly in the form of snow, late Monday night into Christmas morning.

Clouds increase during the day on Christmas Eve (Monday), but the day looks mainly dry. A few flurries develop late Monday night, but a period of light snow or snow showers is expected after midnight. On Christmas morning, any light snow could mix with some rain along the I-95 corridor before precipitation ends by lunchtime. Near the coast, temperatures will be near or above freezing as precipitation falls.

Inland CT: Around 1 inch of snow, slightly higher amounts possible near MA border.
Coastal CT: Less than 1 inch as the snow will be very wet or mix with rain. 

The general model consensus shows less than 0.25" of precipitation across the area, which translates to generally less than 2 inches. The 00z data has trended drier and the 00z Euro shows very little snowfall across the state. It's possible the models could trend back to higher snowfall totals, but the overall pattern has favored lighter snowfall amounts.
The models also show warming in the column along the shoreline. As critical thicknesses rise and 850mb temperatures warm, some rain could mix in along the shoreline. Without heavy precipitation to cool the column, lower snowfall totals are expected near the coast.

00z NAM snowfall forecast (from text data):
Windsor Locks: 1.6"
Hartford: 1.1"
Windham: 0.4"
Meriden: 0.3"
Danbury: 0.1"
Stratford, New Haven and Groton: 0.0" 

00z GFS snowfall forecast (graphical guidance):
Inland CT: Up to 1 inch
Coastal CT: No accumulation

00z Euro:
Little or no snowfall across the state. 

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Quincy Vagell

Town: Naugatuck, CT  

Reporting for WXedge since January 2012.

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