How Cold Can It Get Tonight?

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By Quincy Vagell on January 2, 2013, 1:55pm Last modified: January 3, 2013, 9:18am

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After a cold night last night, some potentially colder air is about to move in. 

-Inland, temperatures should fall into the single digits above zero later tonight.
-For the shoreline, readings between about 10 and 15 degrees are expected.
*Some outlying areas in northern Connecticut could fall below zero. 

As a weak cold front slips south of the area and high pressure nudges in, the area should see the mercury plunge tonight. The image above hows the NAM forecast 2-meter temperatures for 6 a.m. Thursday. Inland areas are between 0 and 9 degrees, while the shoreline is in the 10 to 16 degree range. With a solid snowpack across most areas and inland dew-points forecast to be below zero, the actual air temperature could drop below zero in some spots.

MOS forecast low temperatures...(MAV, MET, LAMP, LAMP minimum dew-point)
Windsor Locks: +4, +6, +5, -6
Windham: +1, +8, +1, -8
Danbury: +5, +9, +5, +1
Oxford: +7, +12, +7, -1
Meriden: +7, +11, +6, -1
Hartford: +7, +10, +8, -3
Stratford: +16, +17, +17, +5
New Haven: +11, +15, +13, +3
Groton: +9, +13, +11, -1

The bold numbers are an approximate estimate of how low the temperatures could possibly go under ideal conditions. If skies can clear out and winds go calm, I do think some areas will fall below zero by Thursday morning. MOS has a tendency to run a bit mild in cases like this, especially with snow-cover in place and a good radiational cooling setup.

DXR (Danbury Airport) and IJD (Windham Airport) are the climatologically favored areas to get the coldest in these setups.
*I will venture a guess and say that Danbury bottoms out at 4 degrees above zero, while Windham falls to an even zero degrees.
(for the record, the National Weather Service forecasts a low of 5 degrees for the Windham area and 14 degrees for the Danbury area)

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Quincy Vagell

Town: Naugatuck, CT  

Reporting for WXedge since January 2012.

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